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Like many of you, I'm more than a little concerned about
the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. To allay my
fears, I decided to do a modeling of the current
state of the race. The sliders allow you to adjust the systematic bias in the state and national polls (about 1-2% in the last two general elections), and random errors in state polls (about 2.5% in the final polls). If you want to play out different scenarios as the race tightens, simply use the bias slider. Be sure to hover over the states to get info like current polls, the 2012 results, and estimates (based on data and the slider values) of the current state of the race. A complete (and more than a little pedantic) description of my method may be found here on my blog. In short, I assume that 2016 will bear at least some resemblance to 2012. I therefore use as my starting point that state margins will be the same as in 2012, but corrected for whatever the national trend is. I've used the Huffington Post Pollster to aggregate national data, and will use it for state data later in the race (for the moment, I'm using the Real Clear Politics averages). I'm continuously updating both the state and national data. Finally, if you have any questions, you can contact me:
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